The SEQ 2026 plan intends to: “protect biodiversity, contain
urban development, build and maintain community identity, make
travel more efficient, and support a prosperous economy. At the
same time, the Regional Plan proposes that communities be built
and managed using the most up-to-date and effective measures to
conserve water and energy and for the design and siting of
buildings to take advantage of the subtropical climate.”
This is certainly a step in the right direction. SEQ provides a
vision, direction so as to deal with expected demographic change
and the resultant problems and opportunities.
Reflecting on lost opportuntiies, John Minnery writes that in
1944,” planners proposed a one mile wide ‘green belt’ of rural
land encircling Brisbane’s developed suburbs, together with
future satellite towns linked by road. Supporters argued that
cities were spreading ‘like spilled treacle, engulfing
everything in its path’. Such treacle cities city covered good
agricultural land. They led to the overloading of water and
sewerage mains and to insurmountable traffic problems.”
However, this proposal was not implemented.
Asks Minnery:
“But just think how different South East Queensland would look
today of the idea had been implemented. Clear breaks in the
continuous suburban landscape now stretching from Noosa to the
Tweed and beyond Ipswich. Public effort put into towns beyond
the green belt with a better distribution of jobs and the
infrastructure to serve them. And no public concern about the
looming sprawling ‘200 kilometre city’. ”
SEQ 2026 has learned from this lesson in setting out a vision
and new directions for the future.
But what might 2026 actually look like? While we cannot know
the future, we can reduce uncertainty; we gain a better sense
of the possibilities through scenarios.
I offer four futures for the SEQ region.
SEQ STILL LIVABLE
SEQ 2026 goals achieved. It is 2026 and there is plenty of
opportunity in SE Queensland. The population has dramatically
increased but through good governance, community consultation
and foresight, negative possibilities (crime, congestion,
pollution) have been mitigated and positive possibilities (job
growth, green belt protection, water and energy management,
travel choices) enhanced. People still want to move to SEQ even
with higher housing prices. A two class society has not resulted
as government has intervened to deal with inequity. Green spaces
are plenty and urban design is far more sensitive to local
conditions.
A fair, green and healthy go is still possible. Queenslanders
still look to government to solve their problems but they are
less dependent on the State. They are also more globalized,
looking to live, work, travel, learn from, import and export to
the broader world. Using dramatic new technologies,
Queenslanders are planning for 2046.
SEQ HOT AND PAVED
SEQ 2026 goals failed as growth was too dramatic. Looking back,
the plan needed far more teeth. While it was an admirable effort
to take power away from local shires and put the region first,
that is not how things turned out. Market pressures kept
housing prices going up (demand from other parts of Australia
and overseas) continued. Developers gave lip service to green
and social concerns. A two class society has started to emerge.
Traffic problems did not decrease, rather, every effort to widen
highways, in a matter of years, led to more congestion. The
vicious cycle continued. SEQ is a long highway between
Coolangatta and Noosa. Global warming has only made life worse
– temperature continues to rise, water shortages increase. SEQ
is full of hot cities – paved cities with higher than normal
temperatures. Many have made money but the quality has life for
others have gone down. Health indicators continue to worsen –
citizens look to local government to solve problems. Local
government looks to State government which looks to the
Federal. The Federal seeks to stay in power. Capacity continues
to shrink.
SEQ WIRED AND MISERABLE
The last twenty years have been a series of confrontations
between local authorities and regional government; between
developers and environmentalists; between individual freedom
and security; between councilors and state governments; between
young and old; between rural areas and the beach; and between
new migrants (many environmental refugees) and old migrants.
Endless sprawl, congested highways, gang warfare have made SEQ
a miserable place to live in. There are many gated communities
– high gate, big dog – that give some peace to the elderly. But
outside these communities social tensions fester. Peace is also
kept via surveillance – live Google – and tough regulation. Air
has been digitalized and citizens are monitored in every
possible way. Discipline is the buzz word – SEQ returns to the
political climate of the 1980s. The attempts to plan for the
future, while admirable, were met with resistance at every
level. Local concerns took precedence over regional – and it is
all a mess now. Technology and power is used to keep collective
peace.
SEQ TRANSFORMED
The concern for the long term future was ignored by some but
became the passion for many. The SEQ vision enhanced the
capacity of shires all over Queensland to develop their own
visions (Logan 2026, Gold Coast 2046, Maroochy 2020, Brisbane
2026, for example). Community capacity to innovate resulted.
The cultural creatives – less than 20% of the population in the
early 2000’s – has grown dramatically in the last twenty years.
The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation, global
governance have become the official values. These values have
been reinforced through systemic (legislation, city design, tax
regimes) changes.
Instead of suburbs, work-home-community electronically linked
hubs have grown. Working in these hubs has led to dramatic
jumps in productivity (less time lost on the road, more control
of one’s work life). Travel choices – walking, bikeways, car,
and light rain – have increased. Organic gardens have sprouted
everywhere. Smart green technologies exist all over Queensland.
Indeed, not only has this transformed Queensland, but exports of
these technologies are slowly but surely changing Asian cities.
SEQ is known has not just the smart centre for Australia but
also the shanti centre. Yoga, for example, a three billion
dollar business in the USA 20 years ago, has now become a
trillion dollar business and SEQ has done well from it. Healthy
eating and living were once a dream but the obesity crisis of
the first ten years of this century led to a dramatic turn
around. Systems became smarter and individuals took personal
responsibility for their health. The invention of the personal
carbon credit system also led to reconfiguration of energy use.
SEQ is a world leader. There are still conflicts but
neighborhood mediation centres (not to mention peer mediation
in schools) are used to resolve many of them. While population
has increased, energy consumption has maintained steady.
Innovation continues to breed technological and social
innovation. While there are many global changes, SEQ can meet
them as citizens do not see themselves at the mercy of large
institutions, their capacity to influence their lives continues
to increase.
WHICH FUTURE?
Which of these futures is the plausible one? It is certainly
too soon to tell. But decisive factors will be (1) A shared
vision of the desired future. (2) Good governance through
enhanced community consultation and anticipatory democracy. (3)
Use of smart, social and sustainable technologies to solve
problems and enhance community capacity). (4) Moving away from
quick fixes to the deeper issues (for example, not just
expanding highways but increasing travel choices; not just
speeding up all processes but exploring the slow city; not just
training more doctors but changing the hierarchical structure of
modern medicine). (5) Ensuring performance indicators are linked
to the direction SEQ seeks to move toward and (6) Creating
transitional strategies and cultures to move from the
industrial era to the digital/sustainable era.
Which future do you want for SEQ 2026?
About The Author: Sohail Inayatullah is a political scientist
and futures studies specialist. He is a Professor at Tamkang
University in Taiwan and the University of the Sunshine Coast
in Australia. You can read more of his articles at his website:
http://www.metafuture.org
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